Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Analysis of Naval Strength of South East Asia


Question 1: What will be the immediate action required to achieve balance of  power?

Answer:
We are short of mid-sized ships, i.e. frigates and corvettes to cover our seas. Singapore has a total of 12 vessels, Philippine has 13 vessels, Indonesia has 28 vessels while Thailand has 17 vessels with 1 aircraft carrier. Ideally we need at least 4 more frigates and corvettes.


Question 2: Is Malaysia in need of submarines?

Answer:
Perhaps the immediate threat will be from our nearest neighbours - Singapore with 6 submarines and Indonesia with 2 submarines. Vietnam will take delivery of 2 submarines from DPR in 2012 and 6 more submarines from Russia from 2014-2019. There are two options for anti submarine warfare - (1) deploy attack submarines or (2) strengthen anti submarine warfare (ASW) with helicopter, anti submarine destroyer or sub chasers.

Question 3: What other things are we short of, compared to our neighbours?

Answer:
In terms of amphibious vehicle and rapid troops deployment, we are short of LCM, LST and the like.
Indonesia seems to be a fan of old doctrine of engagement via shore landings with 35 ships. Vietnam has 20, Thailand has 14 ships, while Singapore has 4. We have lost the only LST due to fire*.



Note*: Our last LST was KD Sri Inderapura that was destroyed by fire on 8 Oct 2009 while anchored in the Lumut Naval Base. KD Sri Inderapura was officially decommissioned from Royal Malaysian Navy on 21 Jan 2010.




我们准备迎接两党制了吗?


A two-party political system is a system where two major political parties dominate voting in nearly all levels of elections for government.两党制是一个由两大政党主导的政治系统,在所有各级的选举中都参选。在两党制下拥有多数议席的政党将组成政府,而少数票政党将成为反对党。

我国我国最近也出现了一股力量在推动着两党制。Some proponents have gone to the extent of proposing the abolishment of race-based party to encourage the growth of two party system.这些支持者谴责种族性政党是妨碍两党制蓬勃发展的罪魁祸首。他们认为以种族为基础的政党已经不能迎合现代社会的需求,更认为如要两党制健全发展,那废除种族性政党是势在必行的。

两党制到底是不是Is two party system the only choice that we have?唯一的选择呢? To answer this, we have to honestly answer the following questions:要回答这个问题,我们必须真诚的回答以下的问题:

(1) Is two party system the only solution ? 1)两党制是不是唯一的选择呢?

There are many countries in the world that practices multiple party system , including developed nations, eg France, Germany, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, New Zealand, Ireland, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico and Brazil.世界上有许多国家(包括发达国家)奉行多党制,典型例子有法国、德国、意大利、加拿大、荷兰、丹麦、瑞典、挪威、芬兰、纽西兰、爱尔兰、台湾、印度、印尼、以色列、墨西哥和巴西等。 除此以外,一些国家是奉行单一或主导性政党的,例如:中华人民共和国和新加坡上述的例子皆显示两党制不是唯一选择

(2) Are there any advantages or disadvantages of two party system that we are unaware of? 2)两党制是否有任何我们不知道的的优势或缺点

The advantages of two-party systems are:两党制的优点是:

i) Two-party systems promote centrism and encourages political parties to find common positions which appeal to wide swaths of the electorate .)两党制能促进中央合并,并鼓励各政党达致共识以便能够获得广大选民的支持它能让政治稳定,促进经济增长。

ii) two-party systems are simpler to govern , with less fractiousness and harmony, while multi-party systems can sometimes lead to hung parliaments.二)两党制简单的治理系统,它能减少分裂、促进和谐,而多党系统有时会导致悬恃会。

The disadvantages are:两党制的缺点是:

i) Two-party systems fail to provide enough options since only two choices are permitted on the ballot ( The Tyranny of the Two–party system , Lisa Jane Disch 2002).)两党制无法提供足够的选择 ,因为在选票上它只允许两个选择。
(来源:“两党制的暴政”,Lisa Jane Disch 2002年)。
ii) The winner-take-all mechanism discourages independent or third-party candidates from running for office or promulgating their views (" The Electoral College Explained" in Time Magazine , Kristina Dell, Nov 2001).
)两党制内的“赢家通吃的机制阻碍独立人士或第三方候选人竞选或公布他们的意(来源:选举团解释", 时代周刊Kristina Dell, Nov 2001
iii) The American two-party system is not as representative as the parliamentary system as the latter is inherently much more open to minority parties getting much better representation than third parties.
三)美国的两党制不比英国的多党国会模式具代表性,因为后者是本质上更能让第三方代表或少数党有机会成为代表。It is also interesting to note that majority of democracies around the world have chosen the British multi-party model ( "Exceptional Democracy" in Huffington Post , Chris Weigant, April 7, 2010).值得注意的是世界各地的民主模式多数选择了英国的多模式(来源:特殊民主赫芬顿邮报,Chris Weigant, April 7, 2010

(3) Can two party system be implemented in our local political landscape? 3)两党制的能否在我国政治局势中落实?

To address this question, we must look at a) historical foundation and b) current development:要回答这个问题,我们必须看:(A)历史基础 和B)目前的发展:

a) Historical foundation A)历史基础

Historically our parliamentary system is based on the British multi-party model .从历史层面看,我们的议会制度是建立于英国的多党模式 Despite the difference, the "winner-takes-all" system in our country is very similar to the United States and is seen as a catalyst to two-party system.尽管与美国是两党制不同,它的赢家通吃机制却令两者看起来非常相似。这间接的成为我国两党制的一个催化剂。 在这在这赢家通吃机制下,较弱的政党被逼结盟或融合来够挑战强大的一方霸主,以便在立法议会获得的它的政治影响力。

b) Current development b)目前的发展

In the context of Malaysia, a fusion is nearly impossible judging from the fact that both BN and PR components are formed from the various political parties with different background, ideologies, objectives and "religion" (probably the only odd one in this world).在马来西亚的政治背景下,融合 (fusion) 几乎是不可能的,因为国阵(BN)及民联(PR)是由不同的背景,意识形态,目标和宗教(大概是世上唯一的怪象)的成员党所组成。It is very difficult to find an absolute consensus and hence the alliance is formed on a weakly agreed terms .绝对的共识是非常难找到的,而这些联盟大都由非常脆弱的条件所契合一旦爆发灰色地带争议而陷入僵局后,其Not surprisingly many parties and people broke off from the alliance once a deadlock in the grey area was met.成员党及人士就会相继脱离,这是一点都不奇怪的。To facilitate fusion, the parties must go through many rounds of evolution and assimilation, including compromise on their core beliefs in order to reach a formidable consensus.为了促进融合(fusion),各成员党都必须经过多次的演变(evolution)和同化(assimilation),包括妥协自己的核心价值观,才能促成一项无坚不摧的共识。除非每个人都愿意妥协,否则It is not likely going to happen in the near future unless everyone is willing to compromise!这不太可能会在近期发生!这就是为何The current two coalition systems between BN and PR has seen many alliance and parting from its members.国阵及民联的联盟不断有成员加入和成员脱离的原因。Despite the problems, it is probably the best form of alliance system as they are formed with a breath of representations from all walks of life.尽管有存在的问题,联盟体制还是最佳的形式,因为它能够容纳各造,籍此达到更广泛的代表性。

(4) What does it take to have two-party system? 4)怎样才能有两党制?

Firstly, it is in dire need of the spirit of "non-partisan" and "bi-partisan" which is not aligned to any party. A "non-partisan" spirit is best option for healthy political development.首先,两党制的精神必须建立在非党派(non-partisan双党派(bi-partisan的基础上,简单的说就是不随便以党派的意愿为依归“非党派”精神是健康的政治发展的主轴。Elected representatives are free to support any motion and legislation that they think best serves the interest of their community.代议士可以自由的支持他们认为最符合社会利益的任何议案和立法。A bi-partisan spirit is where consensus and compromise are made in order to accomodate the demands of both parties, again in the interest of the people.双党派”是一项以人民利益为大前提,但通过共识和妥协来迎合双党的要求的精神。 There is however a tendency to put the party's interest on top of the interest of the people and hence care must be taken to avoid this from happening.然而,但它却可能会有把党的利益放在人民之前的倾向,因此必须小心避免这种情况发生。

Our political system in Malaysia has always been in a "partisan" or polarized/bias style where the opposition will always object to the ruling party, and the ruling party will always object to the proposal of the opposition.马来西亚的政治制度一直都处于党派“极化/偏置”的形式,反对党始终都反对执政党的政策,而执政党始终都否决反对党的提议。This is unhealthy as humans can sometimes err in their decisions.这是不健康的,因为人非圣、贤孰能无过。 就因为就因为这两极化的观点,错误的一方总是不愿意作出妥协,导致错误持续存在。与其看到两党派党派耗尽所有时间搞对立,我衷心希望看到一个无党派和两党派的精神在我国政坛出现。 We all should support the right thing instead of merely echoing the party's agenda.我们都应该支持正确的事情,而不是仅仅附和党的议程。The recent tabling of President Obama's budget also saw the spirit of "bi-partisan" being put into effect when a consensus is reached between the Democrats and Republican.最近美国总统奥巴马提交的财政预算也见证了双党派精神付诸实施,民主党和共和党之间最终达成共识。If the Americans can do it, why can't we?如果美国人能做到这一点,我们为什么不能呢?

Contrary to popular belief that race-based politics are hindrances to the development of two party system, it is the "object for the sake of objecting" mentality that must stop in order to encourage two party system to flourish.民间一般认为以种族为基础的政治是两党制发展的障碍,其实不然。反而是为了反对而反对的心态必须停止,才能鼓励两党制的发展。 A two party system allows the opposition party to have strong check and balance power but at the same time require them to exercise this power with care.两党制能让反对党有强而有力的检查和制衡能力,但它同时也需要反对党谨慎行使这项权力。

In United States, race-based politics has been a staple of Democrats and their liberal media cohorts under president Obama.在美国,族群政治一直是奥巴马总统所领导的民主党同僚以及自由派媒伙伴的主题。But why there seems to be no objection in an advanced state with the most liberal political landscape when the race card is played?但为何在这一个拥有高度自由政治气象的先进国,当种族牌被推出时,却没有任何反对声浪? The answer is simple.答案很简单。 它已被融合在各族群平等和公平的条款内。当然您不能阻止人们选出第一位黑人总统,否则将构成一种偏见或种族歧视罪 In essence, every race in this world have their right to be treated fairly and equally and as long as the races did not achieve equal status, race-based politics will still be relevant .从本质上来讲,世界上每一个族群都应拥有公平和平等对待的权利只要有某些族群没有达到同等的地位,那么族群政治还是有它存在的必要

之前之前英语教数理(PPSMI的问题,恰好是某些政党为了反对而反对最好的写照。最初他们反对的PPSMI推行,一旦PPSMI取消时,他们却反对废除PPSMI政党Aren't political parties supposed to have a stand?不是应该有一致的立场的吗? How can the benefits of the people be represented when the parties suddenly switch camp?当政党突然切换立场时,人民的利益该何去何从?This is a classic example of " partisan" , non-constructive style that we all should avoid at all costs.这就是典型的党派毫无建设性的政治意识的最佳例子,也是我们应该竭尽所能去避免的。

Conclusion 结论

Judging from the current scenario in Malaysia, I would say we are still far away from reaching two-party system.从目前马来西亚情况来看,我认为我们离开两党制的实现还有一段距离。实际上实际上,当各族还未有平等的权利之时,我们其实也还没有逼切需要两党制。我国现有的民主模式虽有瑕疵但还是正常运作,所以我们没有必要把它推倒重来。 Why would we want to reinvent the wheels when we already have it

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Are we ready for two-party system?

A two-party political system is a system where two major political parties dominate voting in nearly all levels of elections for government. Under a two-party system, the dominant party who holds a majority in the legislature will form the government while the minority will form the opposition party.

Recently there has been a growing pressure to push for two party system in Malaysia. Some proponents have gone to the extent of proposing the abolishment of race-based party to encourage the growth of two party system. They condemn race-based party as the culprit that prevents two party systems from flourishing, and said that the race-based parties are irrelevant in modern world.

Is two party system the only choice that we have? To answer this, we have to honestly answer the following questions:

  (1) Is two party system the only solution?
   There are many countries in the world that practices multiple party system, including developed nations, e.g. France, Germany, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, New Zealand, Ireland, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico and Brazil. There are also countries that practices single/dominant party system such as People's Republic of China and Singapore. Two-party system is not the only working choice as shown in the examples above.

   (2) Are there any advantages or disadvantages of two party system that we are unaware of?

The advantages of two-party systems are:
i) Two-party systems promote centrism and encourages political parties to find common positions which appeal to wide swaths of the electorate. It can lead to political stability which leads, in turn, to economic growth.
ii) two-party systems are simpler to govern, with less factiousness and harmony, while multi-party systems can sometimes lead to hung parliaments.

The disadvantages are:
i) Two-party systems fail to provide enough options since only two choices are permitted on the ballot (The Tyranny of the Two–party system, Lisa Jane Disch 2002).
ii) The winner-take-all mechanism discourages independent or third-party candidates from running for office or promulgating their views ("The Electoral College Explained" in Time Magazine, Kristina Dell, Nov 2001).
iii) The American two-party system is not as representative as the parliamentary system as the latter is inherently much more open to minority parties getting much better representation than third parties. It is also interesting to note that majority of democracies around the world have chosen the British multi-party model ("Exceptional Democracy" in Huffington Post, Chris Weigant, April 7, 2010).

     (3) Can two party system be implemented in our local political landscape?

     To address this question, we must look at a) historical foundation and b) current development:

a) Historical foundation

Historically our parliamentary system is based on the British multi-party model. Despite the difference, the "winner-takes-all" system in our country is very similar to the United States and is seen as a catalyst to two-party system. Consequently, as in all "winner-takes-all" system, the weaker parties are pressured to form an alliance or fusion to challenge a large dominant party and gain political clout in the legislature.

b) Current development

In the context of Malaysia, a fusion is nearly impossible judging from the fact that both BN and PR components are formed from the various political parties with different background, ideologies, objectives and "religion" (probably the only odd one in this world). It is very difficult to find an absolute consensus and hence the alliance is formed on a weakly agreed terms. Not surprisingly many parties and people broke off from the alliance once a deadlock in the grey area was met. To facilitate fusion, the parties must go through many rounds of evolution and assimilation, including compromise on their core beliefs in order to reach a formidable consensus. It is not likely going to happen in the near future unless everyone is willing to compromise! The current two coalition systems between BN and PR has seen many alliance and parting from its members. Despite the problems, it is probably the best form of alliance system as they are formed with a breath of representations from all walks of life.

      (4) What does it take to have two-party system?

    Firstly, it is in dire need of the spirit of "non-partisan" and "bi-partisan" which is not aligned to any party. A "non-partisan" spirit is best option for healthy political development. Elected representatives are free to support any motion and legislation that they think best serves the interest of their community. A bi-partisan spirit is where consensus and compromise are made in order to accommodate the demands of both parties, again in the interest of the people. There is however a tendency to put the party's interest on top of the interest of the people and hence care must be taken to avoid this from happening.

Our political system in Malaysia has always been in a "partisan" or polarized/bias style where the opposition will always object to the ruling party, and the ruling party will always object to the proposal of the opposition. This is unhealthy as humans can sometimes err in their decisions. Because of the polarized view, the erred party is not willing to compromise and the error persists. Instead of being partisan all the time, I would sincerely hoped to see a non-partisan and bi-partisan approach in local political scenario. We all should support the right thing instead of merely echoing the party's agenda. The recent tabling of President Obama's budget also saw the spirit of "bi-partisan" being put into effect when a consensus is reached between the Democrats and Republican. If the Americans can do it, why can't we?

Contrary to popular belief that race-based politics are hindrances to the development of two party system, it is the "object for the sake of objecting" mentality that must stop in order to encourage two party system to flourish. A two party system allows the opposition party to have strong check and balance power but at the same time require them to exercise this power with care.

In United States, race-based politics has been a staple of Democrats and their liberal media cohorts under president Obama. But why there seems to be no objection in an advanced state with the most liberal political landscape when the race card is played? The answer is simple. It is well incorporated into their agenda with due respect to every race in terms of equality and fairness. Ultimately you cannot stop people from having the first black president as that will constitute a bias or racial discrimination. In essence, every race in this world have their right to be treated fairly and equally and as long as the races did not achieve equal status, race-based politics will still be relevant.

In Malaysia, the recent issue of PPSMI is a good example of how political parties with "object for the sake of objecting" approach the issue. They objected to the introduction of PPSMI but when PPSMI is abolished, they now object to the abolishment. Aren't political parties supposed to have a stand? How can the benefits of the people be represented when the parties suddenly switch camp? This is a classic example of "partisan", non-constructive style that we all should avoid at all costs.

Conclusion

 Judging from the current scenario in Malaysia, I would say we are still far away from reaching two-party system. In fact, there is no actual need for two-party system as the current democracy model is working fine in Malaysia. Why would we want to reinvent the wheels when we already have it?

By Steve Teoh Chee Hooi

Thursday, October 27, 2011

High time to revamp the government and some GLC's procurement and tendering process

The recent report by the auditor general showed that the country's procurement processes contained some severe flaws. The fact that many of the irregularities and over budget appeared on government's capital expenditure warrants a complete and serious review of the overall service delivery process. Having worked in procurement department before, I would like to share some thoughts on the drawbacks of the tender process and ways to improve the delivery process.

Overall in Malaysia, the tender process can be divided into at least 3 types - direct negotiation, closed tender and open tender. Each type of tender is initiated based on the job scope, cost and complexity of the project.

A. Direct negotiation process

The direct negotiation process is one of the key area that requires a complete revamp. By right, the direct negotiation process is only initiated when the required works can only be supplied by a sole or distinctive company but somehow, there are cases where a local company is taken as a main supplier whose job is only as a liaison between the principal and tender board. Because of that, the tender becomes more expensive as it goes through a middleman layer and the service level again is double charged by the local company without providing any form of support. This is undesirable.

B. Closed tender

Close Tender invitation is offered to specific tender companies who were pre-determined based on capability, technical and financial strength. This category of tender companies should be vetted carefully based on track record but since there is no transparency, some companies are inadvertently favoured over the rest and hence benefitted a great deal from this system. It is also not very competitive judging from the fact that the selected few company may put a higher price than normal and by the end of the day still be selected for the contract.

C. Open Tender

Open tender is the preferred system in many countries. In open tender, the bidding process is open to all qualified bidders, the sealed bids are opened in public for scrutiny and bids are chosen on the basis of price and quality. This will ensure competitiveness and best price over performance for the awarding body.

One of the cynic on the current system is there is not enough transparencies in the tendering process, especially in the direct negotiation and closed tender categories. I strongly believe the tenders be it closed or open, should be open for public scrutiny to ensure that there is no foul play.

My suggestions for improvements are as follows:

1)  Continuous tender monitoring for non-conformance

Overall, the entire tender process should be monitored by an independent body for breach of terms and conditions such as non-compliance, soaring prices, variation orders (VO), delay in delivery etc. In many instances there is a strict time to delivery after a tender is floated. Tender committees are sometimes forced to make unfavourable decisions; for example, to select the cheapest offer from the tender company which may still be way beyond the market price or to select items from vendor whose specifications are less than the stipulated requirements. In actual fact, the non-conforming tenders should be refloated until the prices or specifications are compliant with the stipulated budget and specifications. It is alarming that some of the departments have even go to the extent of asking for more funding directly from the ministry of finance or the respective finance department for more funds so that the tender can proceed. This is ethically and fundamentally wrong!

To overcome these problems - a special review committee must be formed to take over the task from the tender select committee and review the tendering process whenever there is a breach of terms and conditions. They should be empowered to overrule or reject the decisions made by the tender select committee. The scope includes termination of tender, suspension of tender pending compliance, refloating of tender, and revised of capital expenditure (CAPEX) budget. It should be noted however that this empowerment does not cover reselection or endorsement of vendor to ensure neutrality of the review committee.

2)  Revise the vendor certification process

One of the major drawbacks of the procurement process is that the vendor certification process. Many tenders are only open to registered vendors, which are supposed to be vetted by ministry of finance or the respective finance division. The ministry or respective finance department is supposed to vet through the track record, financial strength and capabilities of the companies, but somehow in the process, many under qualified vendors are approved to take on jobs that they do not have expertise in. To overcome this problem, one of the entry criteria may be to ensure that the companies are registered members of the relevant professional bodies. To ensure conformity and qualification, the certification process should be removed and replaced with a point scoring questionnaire of track record relevant to the tender expertise sought. Only vendors who have scored well in the track record questionnaire may be allowed to take on relevant jobs. The same thing can be done for financial strength to ensure that the selected vendor are financially sound for the project.

3)  Purchase strictly through the principal company without any intermediaries

If there is an item that can only be bought from a principal company abroad, the preference of purchasing should be to the principal and not to a local company. The support however, must come from an establish local entity to ensure swift response. Often, this criteria is the one that invites problems. To alleviate the problem, purchasing shall only be made directly to the principal subject to the following criteria:

·         Principal companies without a local presence should either set up a local subsidiary company or nominate a local support partner before the deal is made. This is to ensure that the level of support will be on par with the principal’s specification. The local maintenance and support contract can be terminated if the service does not conform to the approved service level agreement (SLA).

·         The principal undertake to provide support should the local subsidiary or appointed local support partner fails to deliver the service as stipulated in the SLA.

4)  Abolish Closed Tenders

Closed tenders are anti-competition as it is awarded only to an exclusive group of tender companies. It may also encourage favouritism and hence is not a good system to be used nowadays. In a global competitive world, exclusivity is counterproductive and should be avoided at all costs. As such, closed tenders are no longer a viable choice compared with open tenders. Although the selection process of open tenders can be slightly longer, the benefits of getting the best price over performance from the tender greatly outweighs the complaints of a slow vetting process.

With full transparency in the tender process and the mechanisms mentioned above, the tender process will become more competitive and problems like over budget and corruption can be reduced to a minimum.

Steve Teoh Chee Hooi

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

我国真的会破产吗?



最近时常看到一些言论说国家将面临破产等等的舆论,尤其最为人啼笑皆非的是一篇推测国家将会有债务违约,更振振有词拿了一些数据出来作证,但遗憾的这些证据居然没有引述来源。我觉得有必要去纠正这些错误的看法。首先先让我们来看看经济的衡量方法。



A)基本概念

一个国家的经济发展需要看好几个指数:

1. 国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product,简称GDP- 生产概念

国内生产总值是按市场价格计算的一个国家(或地区)所有常住单位*在一定时间内生产活动的最终成果,是全部最终产品和劳务的价值总额。 



国内生产总值始终强调是生产的概念,生产就是劳动者利用劳动手段转换或消耗货物和服务的投入,创造货物和服务产出的过程。日常经济活动中其实也涉及许多非生产性交易,即与当期生产无关的转移支付,这些都不应计入当期的国内生产总值 - 如买卖股票、政府的转移支付(例:援助金)、私人之间的转移支付(例:捐赠)等。



简单的来说:国内生产总值是指一定时间内所生产的商品与劳务的总量乘以“货币价格”或“市价”而得到的数字。



一般而言,GDP公布的形式不外乎两种,以总额百分比率为计算单位。当GDP的增长数字处于正数时,即显示该地区经济处于扩张阶段;反之,如果处于负数,即表示该地区的经济进入衰退时期了。使用国内生产总值这个指标时,还必须通过GDP缩减指数,对名义国内生产总值做出调整,从而精确地反映产出的实际变动。

因此,一个季度GDP缩减指数的增加,便足以表明当季的通货膨胀状况。如果GDP缩减指数大幅度地增加,便会对经济产生负面影响,同时也是货币供给紧缩、利率上升、进而外汇汇率上升的先兆。一个国家或地区的经济究竟处于增长抑或衰退阶段,从这个数字的变化便可以观察到。



一国的GDP大幅增长,反映出该国经济发展蓬勃,国民收入增加,消费能力也随之增强。在这种情况下,该国中央银行将有可能提高利率,紧缩货币供应,国家经济表现良好及利率的上升会增加该国货币的吸引力。反过来说,如果一国的GDP出现负增长,显示该国经济处于衰退状态,消费能力减低。这时,该国中央银行将可能减息以刺激经济再度增长,利率下降加上经济表现不振,该国货币的吸引力也就随之降低了。



GDP虽然不是绝对性的衡量,但它的确能够表示社会财富的增加,目前还找不到可替代的更好概念。



GDP的计算法如下:

国内生产总值(GDP = 消费(CA + 私人投资(I + 政府支出(CB + 净出口额(X - M



*常住单位是指一个经济单位(国内企业、外资公司等)在一国经济领土上具有经济利益中心,则称之为该国的常住单位。



2.国民生产总值(Gross National Product,简称GNP- 收入概念

国民生产总值又称为国民总产值,是指一个国家在一定时间内所生产的最终产品(包括产品和劳务)的市场价值的总和。一国常住单位从事生产活动所创造的增加值在初次分配中主要分配给该国的常住单位,但也有一部分以生产税及进口税、劳动者报酬和财产收入等形式分配给非常住单位;同时,国外生产所创造的增加值也有一部分以生产税及进口税(扣除生产和进口补贴)、劳动者报酬和财产收入等形式分配给该国的常住单位,从而产生了国民总收入的概念。它等于国内生产总值加上来自国外的净要素收入。与国内生产总值不同,国民总收入是个收入概念,而国内生产总值是个生产概念。



国民生产总值(GNP)和国内生产总值(GDP)的不同在于二者计算依据的准则不同,前者是按“国民原则”计算,后者则是按“国土原则”计算的。也即,GNP是一国居民所拥有的劳动和资本所生产的总产出量,而GDP则是一国境内的劳动和资本所生产的总产出量。现在大多数的经济体制都选择用GDP为衡量指数。



国内生产总值(GDP = 国民生产总值(GNP本国公民在国外生产的最终产品的价值总和 + 外国公民在本国生产的最终产品的价值总和。



3.消费物价指数Consumer Price Index (CPI) 和生产者价格指数 Producer Price Index (PPI)

消费物价指数英文缩写为CPI,是根据与居民生活有关的产品及劳务价格统计出来的物价变动指标,通常作为观察通货膨胀水平的重要指标。如果消费者物价指数升幅过大,表明通胀已经成为经济不稳定因素,央行会有紧缩货币政策和财政政策的风险,从而造成经济前景不明朗。因此,该指数过高的升幅往往不被市场欢迎。



生产者物价指数(Producer Price Index, PPI)与CPI不同,主要的目的是衡量企业购买的一篮子物品和劳务的总费用。由于企业最终要把它们的费用以更高的消费价格的形式转移给消费者,所以,通常认为生产物价指数的变动对预测消费物价指数的变动是有用的。



4Foreign Currency Reserve外汇储备金

外汇储备(Foreign Exchange Reserve),又称为外汇存底,指一国政府所持有的国际储备资产中的外汇部分,即一国政府保有的以外币表示的债权 。是一个国家货币当局持有并可以随时兑换外国货币的资产。狭义而言,外汇储备是一个国家经济实力的重要组成部分,是一国用于平衡国际收支,稳定汇率,偿还对外债务的外汇积累。广义而言,外汇储备是指以外汇计价的资产,包括现钞、国外银行存款、国外有价证券等。外汇储备是一个国家国际清偿力的重要组成部分,同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率有重要的影响。



5.国际收支balance of payments以及国债 Public Debt

国际收支分为狭义的国际收支和广义的国际收支。国际收支逆差狭义的国际收支指一国在一定时期(常为1年)内对外收入和支出的总额。广义的国际收支不仅包括外汇收支,还包括一定时期的经济交易。
1)国际收支是一个流量概念。   
2)所反映的内容是经济交易,包括:商品和劳务的买卖、物物交换、金融资产之间的交换、无偿的单向商品和劳务的转移、无偿的单向金融资产的转移。   

3)记载的经济交易是居民与非居民之间发生的。   

 (4) 国际收支既有私人部门交往的内容,也有政府部门交往的内容;既有基于经济目的而产生的各种交易,也包括因非经济动机而产生的交易。



国债(Public Debt)指的是政府的借贷债务,而外债(external debt)则是私人界加政府的借贷债务,国债是最适合用来衡量政府的信用及借贷的顶限的工具。它是以一个国家的借贷减去已经偿还的数额,以该国的货币为基本单位来计算。



B)马来西亚的指数



1.国内生产总值 GDP
马来西亚国内生产总值在过去10年内经历过无数次的起落,其中绝大部分都是受国际经济状况的影响,如1998年金融风暴、2008年全球金融危机等所影响。即使如此,马来西亚的国内生产总值还是有办法复苏,如在1999-20002002-20072010-2011的回弹 (参考附录1)。大马2010年的国内生产总值是237.8亿美元,比起2008-2009年的还高出许多。



国内生产总值(GDP = 消费(CA + 私人投资(I + 政府支出(CB + 净出口额(X - M



根据国内生产总值的方程式,我们可以看到几个提高国内生产总值的方法:

1)私人投资的提升 - 这有赖于我国(本地及外资)的投资政策,以及各省份招徕投资者的努力。在这全球化的时代里,我们必须比其他国度更有投资吸引力,因此中央政府及各州政府应当紧密合作,设法吸引外资前来。

2)提高政府支出- 无可否认政府开支有助于提高GDP。但是这种经济刺激举措不宜一直持续不断,因为这样我国的债务会逐渐提高。我国政府开支有一大部分是消费市场的津贴,包括日常必需品、统制品、石油、天然气等,单单石油及天然气的津贴的总数就高达每年5亿令吉,这笔庞大的数目更因为国际原油的大幅度飙升而受到影响。*

3)提高消费市场- 我国的消费市场虽然有成长,但是一些管制品却因为津贴而无法真正反映出消费能力的提升,这些消费指数的提高是因为价格飙升所造成的。例:一些商家及小贩会乘任何统制品价格上涨(如石油、面粉甚至任何不相关的津贴减少)而肆意涨价,一旦飙升过后,即使统制品价格调低,他们所卖出的价格依然保持不变!由此可见管制品/(津贴)价格的浮动反而造成商家有借口持续起价,现有的市场已经无法反映真正的价格了。*

4)净出口额的提升 我国主要收入来自出口业,我国2010年出口总值是210.3 亿,排名世界第21(参考附录5),远比2009年的157.5亿更高。我国2010年的GDP提升的主要原因就是因为出口的增加。



* 津贴其实间接的对整个市场起了一种笼罩的作用,让人看不清真实的产品价格。广泛的津贴会造就滥用及浪费,因此逐步的取消津贴是势在必行的。唯在执行时,我们必须考量人民的生活起居,尽量的从非主要津贴及不合理合约开始削减,尤其是宗教、独立发电厂、收费站等。管制品及日常所需的津贴应该以最慢的速度降低。



2.国民生产总值 GNP

根据世界银行最新2010年的统计,我国的国民生产总值220.417亿美元(排名38),比新加坡的210.323亿美元更高一级(排名39)。但是在人均收入却只有7,900美元(排名79),比起新加坡的40920美元(排名29)。这意味着国家虽然生产力提高了,但是因为人口比率的相差,我国的财富以人均收入来计算就显得力不从心,如果要获得像新加坡的成就,马来西亚的国民生产总值就必需提高51100亿美元,这是仅次于俄罗斯(1,404亿美元,排名12)的国民生产总值,数目还比韩国(972亿美元)及澳洲(956亿美元)的国民生产总值更高。(参考附录2



3.消费物价指数Consumer Price Index (CPI) 和生产者价格指数 Producer Price Index (PPI)
我国的消费物价指数于20087月经历了一场剧变,攀升到有史以来最高的8.5%后,又于20097月经历了空前的最低点-2.4%,在短短一年之内我国成功摆脱严重的通货膨胀。我国从2009-2010年都保持着稳健的通货膨胀率,至于20117月的消费物价指数介于3.40之间。



我国20116月的生产者价格指数提高了0.6%,比同年五月的指数0.7%低。指数提高主要的原因是几个主要的行业成本提高 - 矿业(+2.7%), 电、天然气及水供(+0.6%). 渔业(+0.5%), 制造业(+0.5%). 值得一提的是农业的成本却降低了(-1.7%)。(参考附录3



通过以上的指数,我们可以预测国内一些消费物价将会逐步的提高,但不是所有领域都会被影响,因此它不足于激起连锁反应。





4.Foreign Currency Reserve外汇储备金

我国自1998年金融风暴后,国家银行已采取了几项值得我们赞扬的措施:1)提高马来西亚的储本金额。2)管制马币的交易

这两项措施自1998年金融风暴至今已经实施了十多年,绝大部分的人都不晓得国家的资金有一大部分已经拿来做储备金,以防金融危机。我国的外汇储备截至20113月已存了有史以来的新高 - 132.750 亿美元。我国中央银行推算出即使马来西亚没有出口,外汇储备的数额足够支持9.3个月持续入口,它相等于5倍短期性外债。比起以前,我国的确采取比较保守谨慎的方式来料理财务,这是值得赞赏的。

[来源:International Monetary Fund. 7 July 2011 http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/mys/eng/curmys.htm]



国家开支其实不等同于国家负债,它可以是在应用国家现有的收益来消费,一些作者直接就把开支当成是国债,这是不对的。
第二点:国债多不代表国家会破产,同样的借贷多得商人未必会破产。打个比方,信用好的商家有能力从借贷中集资打市场,甚至可以是生意量的100%以上,因为他绝对可以让人相信他有能力做生意偿还债务。银行也会毫不犹豫的借贷给他。



以国家为例子:新加坡的国债比我国还多,高达102.4%(第9高,参考附录4)。但是新加坡绝对不会破产,因为它的GDP14.5%(排名第3,还超越台湾、中国、印度),2010年出口总额是351.2 亿(第13名,参考附录5),许多国际银行都很乐意借贷给新加坡。由此可见,国债不是唯一的考量因素。

马来西亚的国债是55,1%(第49高,参考附录4)。马来西亚肯定也不会破产,因为我国的GDP成长率是7.2%2010年出口总值是210.3 亿(还比印度多,参考附录5及附录6)。



5.国际收支balance of payments以及国债 Public Debt

虽然我国的国债对国内生产总值的比率从2008年底的41.4%上升至2010年的53.2%,但这不至于构成威胁,因为我国的国债大部分是国内债务,而且短期债务也不多。我国政府也承诺整顿中期财政,再加上我国相等于5倍短期性外债的庞大的外汇储备。因此我们可以推断债务还处于可控制的情况。






总结


对于那些口口声声说国家会破产的人,他们的言论其实具有误导性。一个国家即使没有能力偿还债务,它其实也不会突然破产并停止为人民服务。面对债务危机的政府可以选择重组债务 - 大幅度减低政府开支、提高税务、提高国家生产能力、或者向IMF借贷进行救市计划。当然这些计划都有它的利与弊,减低政府的开支,逐步减少津贴,减少浪费资源才是首选。



马来西亚的净出口额虽然有起落,但是从未变成负值,除了2009年市场危机时跌至157.5亿以外,我国的出口总值在2000-2011年间不断的提高 (参考附录6)。政府的开支虽然庞大,但是它还不比国家储备金及生产总值高, 如果说我国将面临破产,那是言过其实了。











附录1:马来西亚国内生产总值 G DP of Malaysia

Country
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5
8.6
0.3
4.2
5.2
7.1
5.2
5.9
6.3
4.6
-1.7
7.2



马来西亚国内生产总值 真实成长率     Malaysia GDP – Real Growth Rate




Year
(GDP)Gross domestic product, constant prices
Percent Change
1980
7.444
1981
6.942
-6.74 %
1982
5.941
-14.42 %
1983
6.25
5.20 %
1984
7.762
24.19 %
1985
-0.876
-111.29 %
1986
1.153
231.62 %
1987
5.389
367.39 %
1988
9.938
84.41 %
1989
9.06
-8.83 %
1990
9.007
-0.58 %
1991
9.547
6.00 %
1992
8.886
-6.92 %
1993
9.896
11.37 %
1994
9.211
-6.92 %
1995
9.83
6.72 %
1996
10.002
1.75 %
1997
7.323
-26.78 %
1998
-7.359
-200.49 %
1999
6.138
183.41 %
2000
8.68
41.41 %
2001
0.518
-94.03 %
2002
5.391
940.73 %
2003
5.789
7.38 %
2004
6.783
17.17 %
2005
5.332
-21.39 %
2006
5.849
9.70 %
2007
6.48
10.79 %
2008
4.708
-27.35 %
2009
-1.714
-136.41 %
2010
6.716
491.83 %






附录2




附录3 CPI 以及 PPI





附录4:各国的国家债务




附录5:各国的出口比较




附录6:马来西亚历年的出口量

Export of Malaysia

Country
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
83.5
97.9
94.4
95.2
98.4
123.5
147.1
158.7
198.9
157.5
210.3